Spain head into the upcoming FIFA World Cup as the leading favourites to lift football’s most prestigious trophy, according to the latest projections from the Opta supercomputer.

The data, published by Opta Analyst, is based on a comprehensive simulation study that evaluated the chances of all 48 nations set to compete at the expanded tournament. The findings place Spain at the top of the contenders list, with a 16.1% probability of becoming world champions.

Behind them, but still firmly among the elite contenders, are France with a 13% chance of success, followed by England at 11.2% and reigning world champions Argentina at 10.4%. According to Opta’s model, these four nations form the tournament’s strongest title-chasing group ahead of kick-off.

The chasing pack is led by Portugal, whose chances of winning the trophy are estimated at 7%. Five-time world champions Brazil follow with 6.6%, while Germany are given a 5.1% probability of claiming the title.

Completing the top 10 are Netherlands (3.6%), the rapidly emerging force of Norway (3.5%), and Belgium (2.4%).

Among the non-European contenders, Morocco stand out as Africa’s strongest hope with a 1.9% chance of winning the tournament, while Japan lead the way for Asia at 1.2%.