With the FIFA Club World Cup 2025 heating up, data-driven analysts at Opta have crunched the numbers — and it's Chelsea who currently lead the pack as title favourites. Based on a combination of club ranking, current form, and historical performance, the London side have emerged with the highest projected probability of lifting the trophy.

According to Opta’s predictive model, Chelsea have a 74% chance of defeating Palmeiras in the quarter-finals. If successful, they are given a 58% chance of beating the winner of the Fluminense vs Al-Hilal clash in the semi-final — with the model surprisingly favouring the Saudi side Al-Hilal in that matchup.

Title Probabilities According to Opta:

 1. Chelsea – 26.8%
 2. Paris Saint-Germain – 24.9%
 3. Real Madrid – 18.9%
 4. Bayern Munich – 14.8%
 5. Borussia Dortmund – 7.6%
 6. Al-Hilal – 4.3%
 7. Palmeiras – 3.0%
 8. Fluminense – 1.5%
 

Interestingly, PSG are given just a 35.6% chance of winning their quarter-final against Bayern Munich, while the German side’s odds sit even lower at 23.3%.