Had this Round of 16 tie between Mexico and England been scheduled anywhere else, the Three Lions would undoubtedly enter as overwhelming favourites. However, the unique conditions of Mexico City—situated 2,200 metres above sea level—drastically alter the tactical landscape. Altitude acclimatisation is expected to play a decisive role, and the 49-hour window available to England since their arrival is widely considered insufficient for full acclimatisation.

The Opta supercomputer has taken those factors into account, handing the visitors only a marginal advantage. Thomas Tuchel’s side are given a 40.5 per cent chance of securing victory in normal time, while Mexico are given a 31.5 per cent chance of winning in normal time. England’s primary tactical assets—their explosive pace and high-intensity mobility—could be seriously compromised in the thin air. The question remains: are we on the verge of a major tournament upset?

We are continuing our series of reader polls tracking the defining matches of the World Cup knockout rounds.

Who will reach the World Cup quarter-finals: Mexico or England?